Under Destruction or Under (Re)Construction? Munich 2026 and the Future of the West

For over six decades, the Munich Security Conference (MSC) has served as the undisputed high altar of international security, a "Davos of Defense" where the West has traditionally gathered to define itself. Since its founding in 1963 by Ewald-Heinrich von Kleist as "Wehrkunde", it has evolved from an intimate, smoke-filled transatlantic family meeting during the Cold War into the world’s most consequential independent forum for strategic debate. However, between Friday 13th and Sunday 15th February, at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, the atmosphere suggested that this long-standing ritual had shifted for the second year, from a hopeful reunion to a grit-teeth confrontation with an uncertain ending. The mood was dictated by the Munich Security Report 2026, provocatively titled "Under Destruction," which diagnosed a move away from the incremental reforms of the past toward what it calls "wrecking ball politics." This diagnosis was literal: the post-1945 liberal order is no longer being renovated but is instead being systematically dismantled, transforming the vibe in Munich from a cozy security framework into a stark arena of hard power and "survival management."

Wolfgang Ischinger opening the 62nd Munich Security Conference in the Hotel Bayrischer Hof

Source: MSC/Hase

Chancellor Merz and the End of Europe’s ‘Vacation from History’

The tone for this new era of European self-assertion was set early by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose speech signaled a "Zeitenwende 2.0" (historic shift 2.0) and made it clear that Europe’s "vacation from history" has officially ended. He also acknowledged the uncomfortable truth of a deep rift between Europe and the United States. A rift that, he admitted, was described by JD Vance at this same conference a year ago. Merz’s rhetoric marked a decisive departure from the vague "strategic autonomy" buzzwords of the previous decade. Instead, Merz discarded diplomatic pleasantries for a blunt assessment of hard power and strategic survival. Pointedly critiquing the current U.S. administration, he firmly rejected the "culture war of the MAGA movement" and Washington's hostile pivot toward tariffs, acknowledging the deep rift now dividing the alliance. Yet, he paired this critique with a stark reality check for the Americans in the room: in an era of ruthless great-power rivalry, even the United States is no longer powerful enough to go alone.

To ensure Europe isn't left vulnerable to Washington's unpredictability, Merz outlined a roadmap built on two distinct pillars. First, he called for a massive strengthening of the continent's defense capabilities, championing a self-sustaining European pillar within NATO that explicitly incorporates a nuclear deterrent, which is no longer just a supplement to NATO but a necessary insurance policy against a shifting global order. Second, he pushed for aggressive economic deregulation, framing it as a necessary move to keep Europe competitive against both a rising Beijing and an increasingly protectionist America.

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State, United States of America) at the 62nd Munich Security Conference (MSC)

Source: MSC/Kuhlmann

The Rubio Doctrine: A Bouquet of Flowers with Strategic Thorns

This European anxiety reached its peak ahead of the weekend’s most anticipated moment: the arrival of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The halls were thick with a specific kind of dread, a collective PTSD born from years of threatened trade wars and the bizarre "Greenland" era of the past year. While attendees were bracing for a repeat of JD Vance’s "cold shower" speech from the previous year (a wrecking-ball moment that questioned the very value of the alliance), Rubio instead delivered what many described as a "bouquet of flowers, albeit with a few thorns". The flowers consisted of the traditionalist rhetoric Europeans had been starving to hear, with Rubio describing America as a "child of Europe" and proclaiming that their destinies would always be intertwined. For a moment, the relief in the room was so palpable it felt like a reprieve from the gallows.

However, Rubio’s thorns were unapologetically sharp, and he did not pull his punches regarding the "broken status quo." He lambasted the pursuit of a world without borders, and the dogmatic vision of unfettered trade that he claimed had stripped nations of their wealth and caused widespread deindustrialization. Furthermore, he stated explicitly that the United States expects Europe to take principal responsibility for the conventional defense of the continent sooner rather than later. While his tone was notably friendlier than the isolationism of the previous year, his message carried the same biting criticism of past failures and a firm demand for a total European overhaul. American protection is now seemingly contingent on European governments' ideological proximity to MAGA. Rubio effectively presented a "transactional Atlanticism" where security is the prize for Europe retreating from its own liberal beliefs on migration, gender equality, and climate change.

The Price of Admission: Transatlantic Couples’ Therapy

This leads to the central question of the conference: why this big sigh of relief from the European delegation? What comforted worried attendees was the underlying tone of "tough love," as Rubio cast the administration’s frustrations as an exercise of a "duty of care" toward an ally that America could never truly give up on. Yet, as Anne Applebaum noted in her recent dispatches from ‘The Atlantic’, Europeans should be wary of mistaking this change in tone for a return to business as usual. The insight from the latest analysis is chilling: the "Goldilocks era" where Europe could rely on US security while ignoring its own backyard is dead. This reality invites a sharp critique of the weekend’s proceedings, highlighting a cycle of empty statements and a desperate reaffirming of a bond that is clearly fraying. While leaders like Ursula von der Leyen and Mark Rutte offered the usual liturgy of unity, the reality is that the transatlantic family has entered a period of "expensive therapy" where the sessions are grueling, and the United States has made it clear that Europe must foot the bill.

Beyond the Rubble: A New Blueprint for Survival

Ultimately, the 2026 Munich Security Conference will be remembered as the moment "wrecking ball politics" became institutionalized. The "Under Destruction" report served as a status update for a world that has moved beyond maintaining a security framework and into the era of survival management, where alliances are increasingly transactional and shared values are replaced by shared grievances. Rubio’s speech may have offered a stay of execution, but the price of admission to this new Western century is a total European transformation, economically, militarily, and psychologically. The most important security conference in the world has finally stopped pretending that the old house can be saved; the demolition is well underway, but in that clearing, it is also revealing the stark, difficult possibility for new construction.  If Europe mistakes Rubio's "civilizational" flattery for a return to the status quo, it risks sleepwalking into a vassalage that sacrifices its own values for a protection that is increasingly conditional and volatile.