The Dutch Elections through a European Lens

October 29th saw the Dutch return to the polls to decide on the fate of their new government. At the center of the debate were issues like housing and migration, but this is not the whole picture. The last government led by Geert Wilders fell due to his strong anti immigration stances, which often went against EU law. His extreme demands did not sit right with the other parties in the coalition, the VVD, NSC, and BBB, and as such it will be interesting to see how this will influence the formation of the new coalition.

For this reason, Studio Europa hosted a live exit poll viewing with an in-depth expert panel discussion on the night of the election day. “From The Hague to Brussels: The Dutch vote and Europe’s future” aimed to better understand what lies ahead for the Netherlands, and how the elections’ results will impact the rest of the EU and the potential repositioning of the Netherlands within the European bubble. The expert panel for the night was composed of Julius Fintelmann, Editor-in-Chief of The European Correspondent, Sophia Russack, political scientist for the Centre for European Policy Studies, and Janosch Prinz, Associate Professor of social and political philosophy at Maastricht University.

The European Dimension in Dutch Elections

In a more polarized Netherlands than ever, the issues around which the campaigns have been based are generally national matters: housing, migration and healthcare. However, “other issues deserve to be thrust into the spotlight”, according to Marcia Luyten, journalist, writer, and presenter, who moderated the event. Topics like climate change, the war in Ukraine, AI, and the relationship the Netherlands has with the White House have been overlooked by the campaigns. She states that the nature of these topics all feature a “European dimension”.The lack of discussion about them translates into a vague sense of importance for Europe as perceived by Dutch citizens. Not only that, but with the population captivated by domestic problems, these become the winning ticket for a successful election. As a consequence, cross-border issues result not so captivating in political debates, but not for this reason less important. 

The panelists eagerly speculated about the election results, demonstrating a spectrum of positivity and negativity. As a common thread emerged the question of whether it will be better to have a coalition with a familiar countenance with the Brussels machine or someone good for the the prospects of the Netherlands in the EU bubble. Stability or preference? That is the question. 

Some hypotheses were dismissed and others confirmed by the results of the exit polls, which have seen PVV lose 20,8% of the seats, a rise of 19,2% of D66 GL PvdA JA21 compared to 2023 elections. 

But what does this mean for the EU?

Our three panelists had a lot to say in regards to the consequences of this neck-in-neck election.

Russack believes that the main consequence of these elections will only be seen once the coalition is formed and the Prime Minister is appointed, since the European Council will have to reckon with that shift. Indirectly, this shift could influence which candidates are proposed for the European Parliament in the next election, but that will be seen in the future.

Fintelmann is not happy with the results of the left, which once again clash with the common European perception of the Netherlands being a leftist country. But notwithstanding the political ideologies, he questions whether PVV would be fit for government this time due to their lack of governing experience. 

Prinz agrees that there has been a sentimental shift to far right sentiments by the Dutch population, however. But even though the PVV has still won many seats, the same as D66, it still needs to reach a compromise with the other parties if it needs to rule.

Melman says that these results will lead to long negotiations to form a new coalition, but stability and predictability within the Dutch European bubble will only be achieved through working together productively.

Clearly, there is a lot of disagreement about the results and a lot of unpredictability for the fate of the Netherlands within the EU. But “is this unpredictability frightening or hopeful?”, the moderator asked. Considering that EPP and S&D occupy the majority of the seats in the European Parliament, this is for sure not a satisfying result for the EP majorities, says Russack. However, she stresses that “it is the EU Council that represents the true nervous system of the EU bubble”, so real outcomes will be seen there. Additionally, according to Fintelmann, the absence of the EU component in Dutch debates both symbolizes a move away from the anti-EU Brexit narrative and, at the same time, the loss of a spark for the EU, which needs to be counterbalanced by positive reinforcement of the reputation of the EU. All the panelists have agreed that the EU was able to cope with a number of crises that have marked the last couple of years, like covid, the invasion of Ukraine, and the Trump factor. However, Fintelmann states that there is a general opinion, no matter the political affiliation, that tends to blame the EU for everything that goes wrong and gives credit to national governments for everything that goes right. “This of course ruins the reputation of the EU and the objective of European integration”, Russack points out.

On that last note, about the Trump factor influencing Dutch political culture, Prinz is not so negative. The fact that the American political landscape is characterised by libertarian populism that sees clashing scenarios of extreme wealth and extreme poverty “just doesn’t add up in the Dutch context”. They are just two different worlds. The US, on the one hand, being the homeland of capitalism that wears a mask of democracy which is supposed to be represented by a two-party system. On the other hand, The Netherlands, being characterised by coalition governments among 27 parties that, even if it makes folding ballot papers a true nightmare for voters, also represents the opportunity for even small parties to be represented within the Tweede Kamer. However, it is also true that the popularity of right-wing parties stands on the absence of a valid counterpart and that where the left and the center-left lose support, the right swoops in. According to Prinz, these dynamics find their roots in a trend, started in the 90’s, that deems the left arrogant and falling short in what it offers, as opposed to the right, which has a technocratic element.Certainly, the lack of the existence of a valid counterpart in left-wing options will lead voters to choose the least worst. For this reason, Russack says “I see the point for less parties, but everybody that is not far right has to come together and make effective performance to create a valid alternative”.

Then, coming back to the idea of a future landscape of the EU, Russack states that there is growing fear of the reappearance of a “French-like” crisis, that created significant instability within the Brussels power game, given the great influence that a country like France has. However, Russack reassures us by saying that “lessons have been learnt”, to which Melman adds that the parallel Dutch situation would be that big decisions would be pushed away from a center-right cabinet. “Still, I think the Netherlands is much better off than France. The Netherlands is used to form coalition governments and to give ground to avoid deadlocks in comparison to France”, explains Russack. 

In the end, Fintelmann looks forward to seeing someone in the European Council who has a vision for what the continent of Europe will look like and to be an engine for future reforms. However, one thing has to be clear: this is not another case of a right party winning hands down, but actually a rebuke of that. This is why these results need to be perceived as positive. For Prinz, the future of the Netherlands in Europe will depend on the decisions made in the Tweede Kamer in the future. If the VVD is involved with this leader it could be very difficult to keep a stable cabinet, considering what happened in the previous cabinet. Melman perceives these results as not so negatively impactful in the end, since he believes that the difference towards EU policies within the different parties will not be that big in the end. Finally, Russack believes instead that this is a very optimistic scenario for Brussels, and that she expects a young and progressive representative to occupy its seat in the European Council.