Sunday Summary - 30th of November

Tugs of Crisis, from Caracas to Beirut 

Dear readers, welcome to your weekly rendez-vous with the Maastricht Diplomat. 

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US-Venezuela Standoff 

Tensions between the United States and Venezuela are becoming increasingly apparent in terms of security. US President Donald Trump has suggested that he would be prepared to authorize ground operations against drug traffickers in Venezuela. This statement comes after multiple visits to US allies in the Caribbean to secure strong cooperation between the United States and its Central American counterparts by Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth.

Bases in Puerto Rico have been reopened and military exercises are resuming in Panama. These major advances in security demonstrate the United States' clear commitment to an increased military presence in the Caribbean. The President of Panama is trying to ease tensions by asserting that his country is not pledging allegiance to the United States for hostile purposes against Venezuela. The partnership between the United States and Panama is raising questions among the Panamanian population, as the presence of US soldiers brings back memories of the 1989 US invasion. Trinidad and Tobago inevitably find themselves at the centre of tensions between the United States and Venezuela due to their geographical position (close to the coast of Venezuela. The local press, which had been demanding answers from Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar regarding the US military aircraft that had been spotted on the island earlier, announced that her government had no intention of serving as a base for a military campaign against Venezuela. 

November 29 marks an escalation in tensions with the US President, who has stated that Venezuela's airspace should be closed. In response, the Venezuelan government has strongly condemned this statement as a colonialist threat and a clear violation of international law. The security situation appears to be deteriorating daily, to the detriment of stability in the Caribbean region. 

Coup d’état in Guinea Bissau 

Guinea-Bissau, whose population was awaiting the results of the presidential and legislative elections, experienced a coup d'état on 27 November. The military seized power under the pretext of wanting to ‘restore order’. A curfew is in force from 7 p.m. to 6 a.m., the city of Bissau is calm but politics are in turmoil. The main presidential candidates, Umaro Sissoco Embalo and Fernando Dias were each claiming victory until the sound of AK-47s invaded the election commission's premises. 

The military has taken control of the West African country, but this military command is not the first in the region, as neighbouring countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso are also ruled by military powers. This post-election crisis unfortunately echoes the country's history, as no fewer than ten coups d'état have taken place since its independence. General Horta N'Tam was therefore appointed on November 27 as transitional president and head of the military high command for one year. 

Yearning for Reconstruction in Lebanon 

Concluding this week's news summary is a new development in the ongoing conflict, with no significant signs of improvement: the seemingly impossible reconstruction of Lebanon. Despite the ceasefire with Hezbollah, the Israeli army continues to carry out strikes on southern Lebanon. 

El Ras, South Lebanon

Lebanon cannot rebuild itself despite the attempt to pursue logistical efforts towards the reconstruction of its infrastructure, as these strikes are dashing any hopes of a rebuilt Lebanon. Work has come to a standstill, and displaced persons are living on the rubble of what was once their land. Tens of thousands of Lebanese are still displaced, living in ruins and facing almost daily attacks that are demoralising.

The World Bank estimates that reconstruction will cost $11 billion, not including the costs incurred by the strikes carried out after the ceasefire. According to Israel, reconstruction efforts are mainly used as ‘cover’, and strikes against reconstruction equipment are justified on this basis. On September 3, the Israeli army targeted a construction equipment depot; on October 11, it was the turn of an industrial zone with construction machinery; then on October 16, a cement factory was hit. It was made nearly impossible to start work, and many business leaders were unable to begin rebuilding their country. Reconstruction under current circumstances is impossible, begging the question: how can Lebanon survive if it cannot rebuild itself? 

We hope this summary has provided you with all the information you need to understand that politics and diplomacy have never been so important, as conflicts, tensions and coups d'état multiply.