EN - Latin America in the spotlight #1: Lula Wins Fourth Presidential Term and Halts the Rightward Shift in Latin America

This article is the first in a series where I shall be exploring recent political turning points in Latin America. In these articles, I shall be examining how these events are intertwined, how they affect each individual nation, and what they mean for the broader region and the values of Latin American sovereignty and unity. In the next article of this series, I will be looking into Colombia’s recently elected president, Abelardo de la Espriella, and what his security, migration, and foreign policy mean for both the Colombian nation and the Latin American region. 

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Historical context 

Brazil’s history started over two centuries ago, but the relevant part for this topic started when the monarchical regime was instituted in the country in 1822. Several uprisings against the regime happened before the Republic's arrival in 1889. Afterwards, the military occupied the post until the election of the first civilian president in 1894. 

In this context, the regime was instituted through indirect elections (voting by deputies and senators), prioritizing the elites’ interests. Following this, the rural oligarchies took control of the country, prioritizing agricultural coffee production. However, in 1914, coffee production was hit by a crisis, which culminated with the Great Depression in 1929. 

At this time, the Brazilian industry was expanding and forming a new bourgeoisie. With that, there was a growing dissatisfaction among workers due to terrible working conditions, who expressed themselves through strikes. Besides, revolts led by young military officers (who sought political and social reforms) added to the unhappiness of the dissident oligarchies (large landowners), leading to the so-called 1930 Revolution. With Júlio Prestes (from the republican party “Partido Republicano Paulista” and co-founder of the democratic union “União Democrática Nacional”) elected in that year, these groups claimed that the elections were fraudulent and prevented the presidential inauguration through an armed revolt. After a month of fighting, Gétulio Vargas staged a military coup influenced by the revolt, and the Vargas Era began.

Thus, the provisional government “Junta Governativa” was formed by the military and led by Vargas, which lasted until 1934. During the first years of the new leadership, there was a growing tension between the military and the oligarchies, which led to the Constitutionalist Revolution of 1932 (a revolt in São Paulo’s state in favor of elections). After numerous conflicts, Vargas gave in and created the Constitution of 1934. Besides the overarching subjects, which were kept from the Constitution of 1891. This document especially featured developments in the electoral and labor spheres. 

In 1934-35, amongst rivalries between the movements of the left and right, along with a coup attempt from a party in response to political repression and fear of the communist threat, Vargas took advantage of this scenario and extended his tenure in office. In 1937, he staged a coup, creating the “Estado Novo” (New State) and the Constitution of 1937, which allowed treating any resistance to the authoritarian regime in a repressive and violent way. After military groups forced Vargas’ resignation in 1945, presidents were democratically elected, and political parties representing conservatives and progressives both emerged. Following this, these parties drafted the 1946 Constitution. 

Then, in 1964, as the political and economic crisis and social tensions escalated, the solution in place was to restore the country’s discipline and hierarchy within the Armed Forces. In order to address these challenges, and as a countermeasure against corruption and the perceived threat of communism, they established a military dictatorship, arguing that the existing democracy had failed to resolve these problems. Furthermore, the coup was viewed as a relief by the U.S. government, after observing that Brazil was not heading in the same direction as countries with communist ideologies, such as Cuba.

The dictatorship was popularly known as an  “economic miracle” due to an immense increase in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product - economic indicator) and foreign investments. However, the minimum wage and investments directed toward education decreased, while the wealth gap and inflation significantly increased. Only when the country went bankrupt did they allow the gradual return of political openness. Then, with public pressure for freedom and rights, the Constitution of 1988 ensured the return of democracy in Brazil. Although imperfect, it is one of the longest constitutions in the world, guaranteeing electoral, labor, and environmental rights.

After this brief overview of Brazil’s historical context, we can more clearly understand the importance of the 2026 elections. Today, although Brazilians have the legal right and duty to vote, we have witnessed various events in recent years showing the population’s disinterest in political movements and cases, with people often swayed by fake news. Fortunately, the manifestations were evidently present in the last election, which demonstrated significant change in this behavior and determination to preserve the country’s democracy.

The electoral outcome

On October 25th, Brazil held its second round of presidential elections, with current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores - PT), winning a fourth term, defeating the Liberal Party’s (Partido Liberal - PL) candidate, senator Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former president Jair Bolsonaro). 

This election was historic in Brazil for several reasons. On the one hand, Lula became the first candidate to win the second round of elections after coming second in the first round. Having obtained 2.2 million votes less than Bolsonaro in the first round, Lula managed to secure over 4.4 million votes more than his rival in the second round, and gained ground over Flávio in 5410 out of Brazil’s 5570 municipalities, even flipping the state of Minas Gerais (the second state with the most eligible voters in the country). The election results show a large polarization within Brazilian society, as Lula dominated in the country’s North and Northeast, whilst Bolsonaro won the majority of the states in the Center-West, Southeast, and South regions. This turnaround was largely due to a large online mobilization which saw a massive decrease in abstentions and blank votes. 

Map showing winners of the presidential election by municipality. Municipalities where Lula won are shown in red, and municipalities where Flávio won are shown in blue. The darker the color, the larger the margin of victory. Taken from O Tempo, 2026.

This mobilization can be explained in large part by the WhatsApp channel “Exército do Lula” (set up by Minas Gerais congressman André Janones), which has over 10 million followers. This was part of a large shift in Lula’s campaign approach, as the 81-year-old appeared on social media more prominently, successfully appealing to a younger demographic. This happened alongside efforts from influential people on social media platforms (such as the “Revelando” YouTube channel) to promote Lula’s campaign, provide context to current events, and reveal the truth behind fake claims. This, combined with protests that were mainly organized by students from São Paulo public universities (especially after Flávio announced planned cuts in education), resulted in Lula obtaining the largest number of votes in any Brazilian election ever.

Lula, who has been politically active since the 1960s, has recently turned 81 and has been a candidate in 7 out of Brazil’s last 10 elections. On the one hand, this raises concerns about the state of the PT, as Lula’s presidency does not make room for any new figures from the party to compete in the elections and rejuvenate the party. On the other hand, there are concerns about whether any such potential candidates could gain the same popularity as Lula: after Lula ceased to be president in 2010, his successor, Dilma Rousseff, was eventually impeached in 2016 (with an extremely low approval rate of only 10%), and the PT lost control of the executive branch. Therefore, the question of whether anyone in the PT has the capacity to be as popular a candidate as Lula remains unclear.

Despite Lula’s successful turnaround, this can also be attributed to mistakes on Flávio’s camp, who might’ve lost the support of undecided voters. This is largely due to Bolsonaro’s statements and campaign coming off as arrogant to a large amount of the population. This can be clearly seen through two examples. Firstly, Bolsonaro called Lula “nine-fingers” during an electoral debate, drawing attention to the fact that Lula lost a finger whilst working in a metalworks factory as a 17-year-old. This message negatively impacted Bolsonaro’s popularity, as he was forced to apologize for this statement later on in the same debate. 

Secondly, one of Bolsonaro’s political ads had to be pulled down from WhatsApp channels, as it was quickly revealed that it had been inspired by Benito Mussolini’s own political propaganda. This example is a worrisome sign of Flávio’s potential fascist tendencies, and raised questions about whether the far-right candidate aimed to govern through democracy in Brazil, or if he intended to progressively introduce dictatorial measures. He indeed claimed during public speeches that Brazil is not in a “full democracy” and aimed to redemocratize the country. It is important to highlight here that Flávio’s father, Jair (who was president from 2019 to 2023), openly supported the military dictatorship which governed Brazil between 1964 and 1985, and was sentenced to 27 years in prison for an attempted coup d’état following his loss in the 2023 presidential election. This attempted coup d'état took place on January 8th, 2023, following more than a month of pro-Bolsonarism protests, blockages, and attempted terrorist attacks. Many of these protests were either coordinated or supported by the PL, the armed forces, and Jair Bolsonaro himself, and they culminated in the attacks on the National Congress, Planalto Palace, and Supreme Federal Court on January 8th.  

Following his electoral loss, Flávio, who is strongly aligned with American president Donald Trump and Argentinian president Javier Milei, rejected the results, arguing that there were inconsistencies with the counting, referencing the last-minute extensions in the counting in several states.

The candidates’ proposals

Both candidates’ campaigns ran on largely different proposals. However, the economy, health, education, and public security were crucial matters in both agendas. Lula (who had already been president between 2003 and 2010, and was the incumbent since 2022) primarily promoted maintaining and expanding existing welfare policies and economic measures to target poverty, such as the continuation of the “Pé-de-meia”, “Bolsa Família”, and “Minha Casa, Minha Vida” programmes, which aim at increasing high school attendance rates, providing financial aid to impoverished families, and expanding social housing, respectively. He also proposed to maintain Brazilian neutrality and strengthen ties with other countries in the Latin American region, as well as BRICS and other African nations.

On the other side of the table, Flávio's proposals focused on implementing stronger measures to tackle organized crime (such as designating several criminal organizations as terrorist groups and constructing more megaprisons) and fostering economic development and foreign investment by providing tax breaks for international companies, as well as deregulating several industries and changing legislation from a standardized wage to a pay-by-the-hour system. The objective of these measures was to foster macroeconomic growth within Brazil and attract foreign capital.

In the lead-up to the election, Lula also implemented two major legislative changes which attracted some support for him: the banning of online betting, and the transition from a 6-day to a 5-day work week. The transition to a 5-day work week (with the same wages maintained) will also result in the gradual reduction of weekly working hours from 44 to 40. On the other hand, online betting had been progressively gaining ground in Brazil, leading to major health and financial issues, as well as an increase in violence, particularly gender-oriented and domestic violence. This was most visible within the poorest sectors of Brazilian society, with nearly 11 million Brazilians showing dangerous gambling patterns. Despite many actors associated with the betting industry protesting these measures (such as major football clubs), 75% of Brazilians supported this measure. Whilst these decisions were popular, they could also be perceived as opportunistic strategic measures in order to gain support ahead of the election, particularly since Lula’s government had allowed the existence of a betting market, and even approved legislation and regulatory measures between 2023 and 2025. 

Political scandals

Both candidates’ political careers have been plagued by scandals of corruption. As such, one of the main targets of right-wing parties was Justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Alexandre de Moraes. This is because Moraes ordered the apprehension of Flávio, as well as the suspension of his passport, as he is the subject of a money laundering investigation, which was done through gambling platforms (also involving his lawyer and close friend Willer Tomaz) and financing for the “Dark Horse” movie, a biopic of Jair Bolsonaro, which was allegedly funded by controversial banker Daniel Vorcaro. After the election results, Tomaz and Flávio fled Brazil for Miami via Argentina. They were allegedly aided in their escape by the American, Argentinian, and Israeli governments. 

The link between the Bolsonaro family and the Israeli intelligence agency, the Mossad (which allegedly physically aided Flávio in crossing the Argentinian border), has existed for some time now, as Eduardo Bolsonaro, suspended deputy and brother of Flávio, acknowledged in 2025 that the family already held close ties with the Israeli embassy. 

Lula himself has also been the subject of several scandals, the two most prominent of these being the Mensalão and Lava Jato scandals, which took place during his first two terms. In 2005, the Mensalão scandal broke out when federal deputy Roberto Jefferson revealed that several parliamentarians were receiving illegal payments in exchange for votes for several of PT’s proposals during Lula’s first term. This resulted in the removal of several key figures of the Workers’ Party, the most prominent being Chief of Staff José Dirceu. Despite this, he was able to close off his second term in 2010 with an 83% approval rate. However, he was not able to successfully navigate the Lava Jato scandal, where it was revealed that several companies (most notably, Petrobras and Odebrecht) had been making illegal transfers to companies owned by members of PT. 

This scandal broke out in 2014, and by 2016, an investigation had been opened into a transfer of 30 million Brazilian reais from the petrol company Petrobras into companies owned by Lula, as well as the purchase of a triplex apartment in Guarujá. Later on, this claim was proven false, as it was shown that the apartment was originally bought by Lula’s ex-wife, Marisa Letícia, in 2005, then purchased by construction company OAS, and was never owned by Lula himself. Nevertheless, the ties he held with this apartment remain deeply suspicious and contentious. This was followed by allegations of illegal transfers from construction company Odebrecht to the Lula Institute, as well as claims of money laundering, corruption, and bribery.

Lula was convicted in 2018 and sentenced to over 12 years of prison. On April 4th, 2018, he turned himself in to the police in Curitiba, amidst protests both in favor of and against his conviction. However, he was released in 2019 after spending 580 days in prison, after it was discovered that Judge Sergio Moro had acted in a biased manner in communications between Moro and prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol. Following his release, there were further appeals and lawsuits, but the case was suspended in February 2021, and he was ultimately allowed to run for president.  

A divided nation, and the matter of Latin American sovereignty

Despite securing the presidency, Lula might struggle to maintain the policies of his previous terms, as the right gained a significant number of seats in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Lula can particularly expect resistance from the Senate, where the PL obtained 23 seats. A coalition of center and right-wing parties could pursue policies such as reversing anti-illegal deforestation measures, more stringent measures against crime (such as reducing the age of criminal responsibility to 16 years of age) inspired by Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele, and cuts to social welfare. Therefore, the next four years of Brazilian politics could be marked by political polarization and hostility between the executive and legislative branches. 

The issue of deforestation was particularly prominent, as deforestation in the Amazon rainforest and the Cerrado savannah fell to its lowest point (since satellite monitoring began in 1988) in the August 2025-July 2026 period, whereas in 2021, under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, deforestation had reached its highest point since 2008. Therefore, there were major concerns that Flávio Bolsonaro would reverse this trend and promote deforestation once again, had he been elected.

Lula, on top of being the subject of two major scandals, will have to deal with the issues of the stagnating Brazilian economy and abundant crime, two issues which Flávio’s campaign focused on heavily. However, this electoral result can be seen as a shift in the political tide of the region, and a symbolic win for Latin American sovereignty. In a region of the world that has long been seen as a political pendulum, there have been 7 consecutive electoral victories for right-wing candidates across Latin American countries. All of these now-heads of state received significant support from American President Donald Trump.

The Trump administration has focused heavily on gaining control of Latin America by installing friendly heads of state by whatever means possible (including military interventions and the institution of puppet states, such as in Venezuela). This is not something new: the American government has long interfered in Latin American politics and supported right-wing dictators through different measures, such as Operation Condor. 

This can also be seen in the aggressive expansion of Evangelicalism throughout Latin America. Evangelical institutions in Latin America (such as SIL Global, previously known as Summer Institute of Linguistics in Brazil) have received significant support from the right-wing in the United States, and are notorious for spreading far-right perspectives through their sermons and community events. This was once again seen in the Brazilian elections, with 62.1% of Pentecostal Evangelicals voting for Flávio, whilst only 31.6% of them voted for Lula. 

Direct attacks on Latin American sovereignty have now become a trademark of US foreign policy (as has been the historical belief of Manifest Destiny, which holds that the US has a God-given right to expand across the American continent and beyond) since at least the Mexican-American War. 

As such, this electoral result is an important step towards maintaining Latin American sovereignty and limiting US intervention in the region. Whilst the future of the Brazilian nation remains uncertain, this electoral result remains an important symbolic win for Latin American sovereignty, solidarity, independence, and unity.