Do You Know Where Transnistria Is ? How Moldova’s European Future Impacts You

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moldova's accession to the European Union is no longer just a fraternal project but a vital necessity for the Republic, as well as for the 27 member states of the Union. On July 4, 2025, Chisinau hosted an EU-Moldova summit for the first time, following the Council decision of June 26, 2025. Indeed, recognising Moldova's meritorious efforts to become a member of the European Union, The EUopened the first negotiation cluster. However, tensions arising from a territory temporarily occupied by Russia, Transnistria, since 1992 are slowing down the integration process. At first glance, this may seem like a niche concern, far removed from the everyday lives of citizens in Berlin, Madrid, or Stockholm. Yet it poses a real risk to Moldova’s security as well as that of European borders. Therefore, it is important as European citizens to understand the importance of integrating Moldova and Transnistria into the European Union, as this would lead to a more secure future for Europeans, greater economic stability, and strengthen the Union's credibility on the international scene^.

A Territory Temporarily Occupied by Russia: Transnistria

To understand the strategic importance of Transnistria, it is important to contextualize Russian interference in the region. On September 2, 1990, a Russian-speaking minority declared the independence of Transnistria, a region bordering Ukraine, to express its discontent with Chisinau's rapprochement with Bucharest. Indeed, they feared losing their cultural and linguistic rights, their political influence and their economic security in a Moldova increasingly oriented towards Romania and moving away from the Soviet sphere, at an already very unstable political and economic period. On August 27, 1991, the Republic of Moldova, bordering Ukraine and Romania, declared its independence from the Soviet Union. The Russian 14th Army , the main investigator of this armed conflict, opened hostilities by enlisting the region's Russian-speaking separatists on March 2, 1992. A ceasefire was agreed on July 21, 1992, which has since frozen the conflict, leaving Transnistria under the control of Russian soldiers, described by the Kremlin as a peacekeeping mission, with the region remaining de facto under Russian control Since then, successive Moldovan governments have called for the reintegration of Transnistria, considering that the international community, including Russia, does not officially recognize the region's independence.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova joined Ukraine on March 3, 2022, in submitting its application to join the European Union. On June 26, 2025, the European Council decided to open the first negotiation cluster with Moldova, advancing the Republic's accession. However, the question of Transnistria remains: can Moldova make further progress towards European Union membership while part of its territory remains outside government control due to Russian interference ?

Map of the Republic of Moldova with a focus on the Transnistrian region. (29 December 2012)

Security and Stability at Europe’s Eastern Borders

It is important for European citizens to understand that the challenge of Moldova's integration into their Union is a security issue of high importance. Moldova is currently at the epicenter of the most significant European security issue since the Second World War. The Republic and its citizens are also very committed to providing assistance to the more than 6.35 million Ukrainians who have fled to the European Union, notably through Moldova and Romania. In this context, many Moldovans choose to renew their Romanian passports, which ensures that their European citizenship remains valid, fearing that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict will spread further west and that they will have to leave in a hurry. Thus, Chisinau could weaken one of Russia's historic anchors on the European Union's border, if it succeeds in peacefully integrating Transnistria. This would strengthen regional stability and guarantee greater security for Moldovans, Ukrainians, and Europeans by limiting the Kremlin's ability to project its power toward the West.

Otherwise, Russia would remain a persistent security threat, being one of the Kremlin's preferred geopolitical strategies. A frozen conflict, in most cases, allows for interference in the society and political sphere of a state, in this case Moldova, but similar situations can also be seen in Ukraine and Georgia. Indeed, European citizens have seen how these unresolved conflicts can escalate or be exploited, as was the case with Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and again with Ukraine in 2022.

By supporting the pro-European policies of these states, European citizens will in return obtain more secure eastern borders and reduced Russian interference within European Union member states. Indeed, aligning Moldovan and Georgian values ​​with European values ​​within state institutions would help to reduce the destabilizing influence orchestrated by the Kremlin, particularly with regard to disinformation. Pro-EU governments are more likely to coordinate intelligence sharing, enforce sanctions, and counter hybrid threats, all of which constrain Moscow’s ability to influence politics within the EU Furthermore, the European Parliament has repeatedly documented cases of cyberattacks, such as the one against the Bundestag in Germany in 2015; disinformation campaigns, such as those by the TV channels Russia Today and Sputnik or on social media; and financial support, such as the funding of the Rassemblement Nationale (National Rally) campaign in France in 2014; or finally multiple espionage operations, such as the foiled coup attempt in Montenegro in 2016 or the expulsion of several Russian diplomats to the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Germany.

Strengthening the European Project

According to the UCDP (Uppsala Conflict Data Program), 2024 was be the year most intensely marked by state conflicts since the Second World War. On the one hand, the growing influence of the BRICS+ countries, including the Russian Federation, highly distrustful of international law and reluctant to engage in traditional multilateral diplomatic procedures, makes conflict resolution more uncertain and less sustainable. On the other hand, the European Union is founded on the promise of lasting peace between its member states. Thus, a European commitment to the successful integration of Transnistria under Moldovan governance and the accession of a unified republic within the Union would constitute a powerful reaffirmation of this founding vision.

The European Union would gain credibility on the international stage. At a time when the imminent resolution of the war in Ukraine seems uncertain, achieving a lasting solution in Transnistria would be a major step forward. Indeed, it would demonstrate that, even after decades of frozen conflict, dialogue, diplomacy, and European integration can prevail. This success would give the European Union credibility to resolve other conflicts on its borders, such as in the Western Balkans or the South Caucasus, allowing it to differentiate itself from other major foreign powers in these regions, such as Russia, Turkey, or Iran. Thus, successful integration would demonstrate that the European Union remains an attractive force for reform and reconciliation.

Economic Opportunities for All

The economic dimension of Moldova's integration into the European Union must also be recognized by European citizens. First, because many ties with the Moldovan economy already exist, as the country is a member of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). This means that both investment and trade are already closely linked to those of the Union's member states. Better integration of Moldova into the European economy would be highly beneficial for Moldovans, as it would help the country modernise its infrastructure and create a larger market. These improvements will be made in accordance with European standards already implemented in the Moldovan legislative system or those to come. The development of the Moldovan economy is a boon for European investors and consumers, as well as small and medium enterprises, which can thus export to a new market or sign partnerships concerning their supply chains. Among other things, IT services or agricultural products would also be available on the European market, whose quality continues to improve. Thus, the economic dimension of Moldova's integration into the European Union is once again in line with the foundations of the Union's creation, namely economic prosperity through cooperation between all its members.

Speaking of beneficiaries, the economic reintegration of Transnistria could improve the standard of living of its inhabitants and reduce the incentives for conflict. In early 2025, Russia decided to cut off energy supplies to Transnistria.This decision was largely a consequence of the disruption caused by the war in Ukraine, which has severely limited Russia’s ability to transport gas through Ukrainian territory, rather than a measure specifically targeting Transnistria. However, Gazprom is referring to an alleged unpaid gas debt from Moldova. The European Union has been exemplary in providing energy aid quickly to the population. However, the support offered a second time by Chisinau and Brussels was rejected by the separatist government in Tiraspol. The population of Transnistria thus had to spend a winter without heating, and children were unable to attend school. Integrating Transnistria into Moldova's Union, rather than leaving it economically isolated, would further stabilize the region. Finally, for European citizens, investing in the Moldovan economy will always be less expensive than having to invest in managing a second conflict on its eastern border.

Energy and Connectivity: Reducing Europe’s Vulnerabilities

Following the energy crisis mentioned above, Europeans understand that Moldova's integration is also a matter of energy security and the development of energy connectivity opportunities in Europe. Moldova, like Ukraine, was entirely dependent on Russia for its gas supplies, particularly through pipelines that passed directly through Ukrainian territory. However, 2022 marked the end of the Russian gas import partnership, committing Moldova to a political desire to turn to renewable energies or at least to diversify its sources of supply in order to better align itself with the European Union's energy market.

Fully connecting Moldova to the European grid strengthens the resilience of the EU's energy system, in a tense geopolitical context regarding energy resources. Now, with the two states located in the Black Sea region, Moldova and Ukraine form a strategic coordinator that will be an advantage for the European Union. The challenge of the European Union's connectivity with its eastern neighbours and beyond can thus benefit from cooperation with Moldova, particularly regarding transport projects. Finally, since these aspects are crucial for strengthening regional trade, they need to be considered and established ahead of Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.

Countering Authoritarian Influence: Standing by Democratic Aspirations & EU Enlargement 

The final aspect to be presented in this article is the symbolic importance of the Republic of Moldova's integration, which, as mentioned above, echoes several founding principles of the European Union. Indeed, European citizens concerned about democracy, human rights, and the rule of law should support the Moldovan pro-EU government, particularly during the parliamentary elections in late September 2025. Moldovans, like Georgians, have repeatedly demonstrated their commitment to European values ​​through peaceful protests, democratic elections, and reforms aimed at combating corruption. Supporting their integration honours the EU's promise to welcome European countries that adhere to its principles, while weakening Russian authoritarian and imperialist influence.

At the same time, including Transnistria in the integration process could pave the way for greater pluralism and better protection of human rights for its residents. The European integration process therefore remains dynamic in the face of criticism of administrative burden and time-consuming procedures. On the contrary, the openness of the European Union to all states supporting the values ​​of democracy and human rights demonstrates the European Union's ability to adapt and gain influence in a tense geopolitical context.

Moldova boasts a deeply European culture and has demonstrated a clear commitment to reform. Media coverage of this state strongly committed to democratic values ​​calls for reflection among European citizens of member states accused of democratic backsliding. However, like the previous successful integrations of recent member states, whether in terms of strengthening the single market or increasing geopolitical influence in its neighbourhood, the European Union benefits greatly from its expansion.

Of course, integration will not be easy, and the Transnistria issue poses a real challenge. But the cost of inaction, such as a fragmented neighbourhood, renewed conflicts and persistent vulnerabilities, is likely to be higher for EU citizens.

Moldova, Transnistria, and Europe’s Shared Future

The question “Why should European citizens care?” is ultimately about what kind of Europe they want. Moldova’s integration within the European Union, including a peaceful reintegration of Transnistria, would ensure for European citizens a Union which is  safer, more prosperous, and truer to its founding values. It would prove that the European project still has the power to heal old wounds and inspire new hope.

In a world where authoritarian powers challenge the European model, helping Moldova succeed is not just solidarity with a neighbour; it is an investment in the security, prosperity, and unity of all European citizens.