Tug of War: The Case of Bab el-Mandeb

Whilst the current crisis in Iran has demonstrated that geography is a strategic asset in times of conflict – with the Strait of Hormuz bringing global energy trade to a standstill when it was closed – this strategic chokepoint is, unfortunately, not the only one threatening what little stability appears to remain in the region. Another strategic point could be held hostage, but this time extending the conflict zone beyond the Gulf States to include the countries of the Horn of Africa; this other is the Bab el-Mandeb. 

Where Maps Meet Power (Where?)

U.S. Energy Information Administration,  “Crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products transported through the Strait of Hormuz 2014-2018.”

Located between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, this 32 kilometer-wide strait not only connects Asia to Europe via Africa but is also a pawn in the region’s political chess game. While Hormuz poses a problem due to its small size and its closure by the Iranian authorities, the Bab el-Mandeb could well become a matter of blackmail between various players. To the east of Bab el-Mandeb lies the highly unstable Yemen, a country torn apart by a civil war that continues to this day, with the Houthis, a pro-Tehran Shia militia, dominating the region. On the other side to the west lies the Horn of Africa, with Eritrea and Djibouti hosting foreign military bases. A geographical location where maritime security does not seem to depend on treaties but rather on the will of local armed groups.

Before delving into the security aspects of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, let us first consider its economic significance. The strait has come to play a vital role in maritime trade, enabling ships to bypass Africa and travel directly between Europe and Asia. In 2025, the volume of trade fell by 35% due to the threat posed by the Houthis and pirates attacking ships. According to reports in the Times of Israel, 10-12% of global trade passes through Bab el-Mandeb; more specifically, around 30% of container traffic and nearly 10% of oil passes through this strategic waterway. A strategic passage that is inevitably the subject of covetousness and threats to exert pressure in times of war. 

Bab El-Mandeb Taken for Hostage (Who?)

Siirski, “Somaliland Map,” 19 June 2021. Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

In the case of Bab el-Mandeb, there are numerous actors, and no clear-cut front lines. Nation-states coexist with militias, secessionist groups and even foreign powers seek new bases to consolidate their influence. This asymmetrical dynamic presents Bab el-Mandeb as a potential hostage, with each actor attempting to secure a portion of it as best they can. 

At the heart of these players is the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), which controls a very large part of the Yemeni coastline bordering the strait. These major allies, funded by Iran, have been able to turn this strategic position into a weapon of disruption, following Tehran’s directives. This highly strategic geographical position also allows them, despite the distance, to display a certain form of weakness by attacking beyond their borders and, as very recently, launching attacks on Israel. In addition to this military strength, the Houthis are threatening to close Bab el-Mandeb, as announced by a senior Houthi official, Mohammed Mansour. 

“To intervene if the developments of the ongoing war against Iran call for it.”

-(Houthi) Group's leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi

Whilst the threat looms over Bab el-Mandeb on one side, on the other side, other forces are also preparing, with an alliance emerging on the African shore. Somaliland, a secessionist territory recognised by Israel only since December 2025, is reportedly in negotiations with Israel to establish an Israeli military base on its territory. This initiative could change the course of the war, as it would mark the first Israeli military presence in Africa. Facing the Houthis, the possibility of Israeli surveillance. 

“We haven’t discussed with them if it becomes a military base, but definitely there will be an analysis at some point”

-Khadar Hussein Abdi, Somaliland’s minister of the presidency 

A move that may be strategic for Israel but runs counter to the interests of other powers: Somaliland is recognized as a state only by Israel, whilst Somalia, whose government, though fragile, is legitimate, rejects this foreign interference on its territory, not wishing to become yet another theatre of war in the Middle East. Protecting the Horn of Africa from foreign interference and war remains a priority for Somalia.

"Somalia does not want to see its territory pulled into external confrontations or used in ways that could further destabilise an already sensitive region," 

-Ali Omar, Somalia's state minister for foreign affairs

Other powers could become involved in this wider rivalry, such as Türkiye, which has its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu and supports the Somali government, and which would, in practice, view Israeli interference in the Horn of Africa with great disfavour. 

It seems that for Bab el-Mandeb, the question is no longer who controls the strait but who will prevent others from blocking it; Bab el-Mandeb is a hostage, awaiting political developments to see whether humans will close it or not. Geography sets the stage for the drama, and Bab el-Mandeb hangs in the balance between two continents.