That Was Close

When Friedrich Merz was officially elected Chancellor of Germany last Tuesday afternoon, he appeared visibly relieved. His conservative CDU/CSU bloc rose in a standing ovation, while Merz remained seated, accepting the applause with a tired smile. The parliamentary vote for chancellor on the basis of national election results, which in Germany is regarded as a mere formality, had been unexpectedly close. Earlier that same morning, for the first time in the history of German democracy, the CDU leader failed to secure the necessary majority in parliament to be sworn in. Eighteen members of his own coalition withdrew their support for the chancellor-to-be, questioning Merz’s leadership before his term had even begun. 

Parliament quickly voted to hold a second vote later that day, which passed and resulted in Merz’s inauguration only slightly behind schedule. Still, the unprecedented failed vote was a clear sign of distrust in the new Chancellor, and can be considered a first sign of weakness of the new government coalition.

Who the eighteen dissenters were will likely never be revealed. The parliamentary vote for Chancellor is anonymous. But that hasn’t stopped members of the new government from engaging in speculation and mutual accusations. Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, head of the SPD which is the second coalition party, stated after the failed vote that he had not “the slightest indication” that anyone from his party had voted against Merz. Carsten Linnemann from the CDU, on the other hand, suggested that SPD politicians may have been “disappointed” and used the vote as a form of protest against their own party leader. With this statement, Linnemann referred to Klingbeil’s recent nominations for cabinet positions that overlooked several prominent long-serving party members.

While some German media outlets have entertained the notion of a conspiracy against the new Chancellor – eighteen MPs secretly plotting Merz’s downfall – the outcome of the second vote points to a different reality. In recent months, Merz has stirred a lot of controversy, for instance by passing a motion with the support of the extreme-right AfD, a move that sparked backlash from thousands of citizens who took to the streets in protest. Even within the CDU/CSU bloc, criticism has been mounting, particularly over his decision to take on new debt, which is a clear break with one of his central campaign promises. A less dramatic scenario, in which 18 MPs across CDU/CSU and SPD individually decided to protest against their leadership, unknowing of the extent of their protest and redeeming their mistake in the second vote, presents itself as the more likely one.

Whatever the reason, becoming the first candidate to lose a vote for Chancellor is certainly not the precedent that Merz hoped to set. Quite the opposite: earlier this year, when he was still opposition leader, Merz had boasted big plans for his first day in office, vouching to "[...] permanently control the German national borders with all our neighbors and to categorically reject all attempts at illegal entry" as of day one. He added that this entry ban “explicitly includes those [people] with a legitimate claim to protection” – since the European migration laws are “dysfunctional” anyway. Now, Merz’s first day in office was reduced to a late-evening interview on public television, where he admitted the vote to be “a small flaw at the beginning of the new government term”.

How small, or how serious, that flaw proves to be is yet to be seen. Though it had never happened before, the procedure for a second vote for Chancellor is written in the German constitution, which means that Merz’s inauguration unfolded within democratic bounds. Furthermore, the new government coalition successfully practised damage control by passing the second vote. In case of another loss for Friedrich Merz, the only party benefiting from the resulting instability, and potential reelections, would likely have been the AfD. But the failed vote has revealed divisions within the government coalition. If the new Chancellor cannot achieve the necessary majority for a vote that has up until now been a mere formality, how will he mobilize support for his actual policies going forward? 

Tuesday’s events have shown the fragility of Merz’s leadership, even within his own coalition. On top of that, recent polls indicate that more than half of Germans do not believe that Merz will be a good leader. In the past months, Merz has relied on rhetoric and actions, such as his statement on blanket entry bans, that have deepened political divides – at a time when the extreme-right AfD has overtaken the CDU as the country’s most popular party. This vote now must be a wake-up call for the new Chancellor. Merz needs to focus on restoring stability in the German parliament and avoid further polarisation if he hopes to win back those voters who have drifted away from the democratic spectrum.