After October 29th: The Main Takeaways from the Dutch Elections

It’s a wrap! Legislative elections took place on October 29, 2025, and it is time for us to summarize everything you must know about the outcome of the vote. You can easily get lost when looking at the winners, losers, surprise outsiders, and seeing a Parliament in such a fragmented state… 

To help us understand more about these results, we explored press articles and analyses. Also, on election night, a team of Maastricht Diplomat journalists attended the Studio Europa event taking place in Maastricht on election night, to look at the results and understand their meaning. They conducted interviews and came up with a report that you will soon hear about. With this, you have access to different perspectives and arguments. 

Scoreboard 

For many observers, this election had a surprising outcome, given how the predictions evolved over the past weeks. Indeed, the polls have been giving PVV the lead since the campaign started, and forecasted GroenLinks/PvdA neck and neck with CDA to become the next Prime Minister. (Writer's note: We did not even mention D66 in our Instagram reel, published two weeks before the election…). The centrist party has been rising in the final week before the vote, under the influence of TV debates. The leader of the party, 38-year-old Rob Jetten, was perceived as a young and charismatic potential Prime Minister for the Netherlands, and this played a role in the last days of the campaign. He also put forward topics that young and urban voters were sensitive to, like climate and education. The final results show that D66 received 26 seats in the Tweede Kamer, 17 more than in the previous Parliament. 

Also, one of the main lessons of this vote is the fragmentation of right-wing forces. The Partij voor de Vrijheid was ahead in the polls in the past weeks, and the victory was promised to Geert Wilders’ party. They arrived first in the past elections of November 2023, with 37 seats. In the meantime, the New Social Contract (NSC) held 20 seats in the coalition, and the conservatives of the VVD had 24 seats.

In the 2025 results, more right-wing parties have political weight in the parliament. PVV obtained 26 seats in these elections, thus reducing its influence in the Tweede Kamer, as they won 37 seats in the 2023 elections. Also, the right-wing VVD got 22 seats, and the Christian Democrats (CDA) received 18 seats, when they only had 5 in the previous legislature. Finally, the far-right party JA21 obtained 9 seats. Therefore, even if the progressive D66 is ahead in the results, that does not mean that conservative forces are weakened. They appear more fragmented but still have a lot of influence in the Tweede Kamer. 

Another important lesson is the fragility of the left-wing coalition GroenLinks/PvdA, made up of the socio-democrats and the green party, and led by former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans. They are now the fourth political group in the parliament, and have a total of 20 seats. This was not the goal that the left was aiming to reach. Conscious of this setback, Timmermans resigned on the night of the election. Politico argues that his past EU career is what cost him the victory in the Netherlands, because he appears cosmopolitan and intellectually elitist, which is not aligned with the expectations of ordinary Dutch citizens. 

This election was one of the tightest the Netherlands has known for years. While PVV had a clear victory margin in 2023, determining who was the winner of the elections this time was difficult. Indeed, votes had to be counted again to determine the winner of the election and attribute the seats adequately. The preliminary results were officially proclaimed late after a delay in the reception of Amsterdam's results, as noticed by the chair of the Electoral Council, Wim Kuijken. Also, the small municipality of Venray was at the heart of this tight battle between D66 and PVV. Indeed, a fire occurred in the city hall on election night, delaying the counting of results, which added to the tension due to the small difference between the final counts of the PVV and D66.

The attribution of remaining seats was decided according to the “restzetel” rule. In the Netherlands, seats are attributed to candidates who received more than 70,000 votes, according to the D’Hondt proportionality rule. This is detailed in the NL Times article, which explains that the final seats that didn’t receive enough votes were attributed to parties, like PVV, that received two seats, and BBB, JA21, CDA, D66, FvD, VVD, GroenLinks-PvdA, ChristenUnie, and SP each received one seat. After this process, PVV and D66 were still at equality with 26 seats. 

The final results, announced by the Electoral Council on Friday, November 7, 2025, put D66 ahead of the PVV, with a slightly more than 29,000 vote difference. This is of high importance because, traditionally, the leader of the winning party gets the first chance to negotiate with other forces to create a coalition.

Elections mapped

Image 1: Election results per municipality in 2023 - source NOS

Image 2: Largest party per municipality in the 2025 elections - Source: NOS

OMG, looking at maps is boring - said no one ever. Maps hold the key to valuable insights about electoral choices, political shifts, and understanding the impact of an election cycle. The Netherlands is no exception to this. The two maps above compare election results between the previous elections in 2023 and the recent one last week. Results are represented by municipality. Let’s dive in. 

2023 saw a landslide victory for the PVV, the far-right Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders. Their light-blue color dominates the map, with every single Limburgish municipality, including Maastricht, having a majority supporting Wilders. Many of his victories were in rural areas, explaining the seas of blue in the north and south of the country. However, even within the urban agglomeration of the Randstad, the PVV also managed to gather enough support to win over Rotterdam and The Hague. VVD’s municipal victories were limited to wealthier communities located outside the cores of big cities. 

The 2023 map overall does not show much political diversity. Big cities like Amsterdam and Utrecht showed left-wing results, with GroenLinks/PvdA claiming their victories there. Besides that, only some small Christian municipalities in the Dutch Bible Belt voted for the ultraconservative SGP, in orange. A big exception to the PVV’s domination of the rural vote was the ‘Achterhoek’, a region in the east of the Netherlands concentrated around Hengelo in the province of Overijssel. Here, Peter Omtzigt’s NSC in yellow was popular, due to his origins in this part of the country as well as his strong representation of rural voters’ needs. 

Fast forward to 2025, and we see a much more strongly painted map, with a diverse palette of colours. PVV’s loss of 12 seats in this election is visible on the map, with many municipalities previously supporting Wilders switching to D66, CDA, and VVD. D66, light green, is a clear winner, taking many of the most populated municipalities for itself in the Randstad and beyond. The fact that it managed to flip many municipalities that previously voted for the PVV or for Groenlinks/PvdA represents the party’s success in addressing the needs of a wide range of voters. NSC is completely wiped out, reflecting the voters’ dissatisfaction with the party’s performance in the previous cabinet. CDA, represented with dark green, makes a comeback amongst the rural electorate, a position it had held historically until the PVV took that crown in 2023. 

The VVD also gains more municipalities, while losing votes overall. This is due to the fact that the voter base became more fragmented compared to 2023, leading to smaller margins required for victory. The loss of support for the PVV can also be explained by this phenomenon, as many voters previously supporting Wilders elected for other far-right parties such as JA21 and FvD. But, due to their smaller sizes, they don’t come out on top in any municipality. 

Image 3: Maastricht results in 2023 and 2025. Source: NOS

Our home of Maastricht reflects these national shifts in a microcosm. While narrowly staying the biggest, the PVV took a hit and lost support of over 20% of its 2023 voter base. D66 saw a large growth, almost overtaking the PVV, while Groenlinks/PvdA and VVD saw losses. The CDA benefited from the political chaos to see its support in Maastricht quadruple. Finally, the smaller right-wing parties of JA21 and FvD saw solid growth compared to their previous positions, going along with the national trend of far-right fragmentation. 

Ask for the program! 

As a part of our Dutch high school society class, students would have to create their own political party and run in a mock election. In an unsurprising turn of events, the majority of my year decided to vote for a D66-inspired party, D69. High school is high school. But that does raise the question. Why does D66 have numbers in its party name? Why is their logo green, and as winners of this election, what do they truly stand for?

D66 stands for Democrats 66, since the party was first founded in 1966. Simple. Their original goal was to reform Dutch democracy, for example, by implementing directly elected Prime Ministers and transitioning to a single-body legislature by removing the Eerste Kamer (or Senate). These radical ideals found support in their first election, winning 7 seats. Over the years, their ideas have become more moderate, focusing on progressive social ideals combined with a liberal mindset regarding economics. A liberal-social democracy is their goal. Up until 2025, they have been in a coalition 7 times, with the last time being the final Rutte cabinet from 2021-2023. 

In 2025, they ran their campaign with the slogan ‘Het kan wél’, roughly translated as ‘It is possible’. Some have compared this with Obama’s ‘yes we can’, both in delivery and in voters’ reactions. This, combined with party leader Rob Jetten’s oft-repeated desire to build 10 new cities, gave D66 an image of renewal and optimism in an election where many had lost faith in Dutch politics following the Schoof cabinet. Diving into the party programme of D66, its 5 focus points are housing, education, the green transition, a healthy economy, and healthcare. They are also strong proponents of investing more money in NATO, closer European collaboration, and standing behind international treaties and agreements. Regarding migration, D66 wants more funding for the Dutch Asylum Organ to streamline applications, and supports the EU’s migration pact. Finally, in regards to international students at Dutch universities, the party aims to change the current funding mechanisms of higher education to reduce the reliance of universities on international students for their finances.

The victory of D66 was perceived as very good news in the Brussels political sphere. Indeed, Rob Jetten has claimed that the Netherlands shall regain leadership in the EU in certain areas, like climate change and asylum policies. But mainly, EU reformists welcome the comeback of a progressive and liberal party that is ready to cooperate with other countries on current issues. D66's victory was a relief at a moment when the far-right was leading the polls. Politico quotes an EU top diplomat, and they say that the “Netherlands has a lot to bring to the EU.” Rob Jetten has this image of a progressive leader, as he would be the youngest and first openly gay Prime Minister if he succeeds in taking the lead of a coalition. As Politico reminds us, it is still in the making, and the program of the future cabinet is yet unknown.

The road ahead 

The most fun part of any Dutch election is being able to play with potential coalitions on www.coalitiemaker.nl. With 76 seats needed for a majority in the parliament, one can pick and choose parties to reach that majority. That is what is currently going on in the Hague, with coalition explorer Wouter Koolmees bringing together different party leaders to discuss their wants and needs. As of now, it seems there are 2 potential coalitions: either a centre-left coalition of D66, CDA, VDD, and Groenlinks/PvdA, or a centre-right coalition where Groenlinks/PvdA is swapped for JA21. 

Coalition-making is going to be tricky. The VVD has excluded any potential coalition with GroenLinks/PvdA, citing ideological differences too big to bridge over. But the centre-right coalition would not reach the threshold of 76, since it would miss 1 seat. PVV has been excluded altogether from a coalition since the majority of parties have elected not to work with them in a coaltion. A right-wing coalition could be possible with the inclusion of a smaller party, but traditionally, Dutch coalitions prefer to avoid 5-party coalitions due to their instability. 

As you see, making a coalition is very challenging. Meetings between party leaders have started under the leadership of Wouter Koolmees, who has been appointed as the negotiation leader. 

Veel succes, meneer Koolmees...